NFL Thanksgiving Week 12 Picks & Week 11 Takeaways
Credit: Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP
Week 12 Spreads & Over/Under Point Totals
By Brandon Caputo & Miklos McMaster
*In this Thanksgiving week for our American friends to the south, there's nothing quite like a Football & Turkey combo every year.
Also of note, no team has a bye this week so sit back & enjoy a full slate of games for Week 12!
As for our picks last week, Miklos broke through with his undoubtable best week of the season,
while Brandon who did well in the o/u's lost the last 7 games of his spread picks; taking a page out of his Atlanta Falcons playbook going completely downhill in the 2nd half.
Week 11 Spreads
Week 11 Over/Under's
Check out this week's episode by clicking the image below:
- Houston Texans (3.0) vs Detroit Lions
Miklos: HOU Over 51.0
Brandon: HOU Over 51.0
An impressive win over New England by the Texans continues their positive trend since cutting Bill O’Brian loose. We think they keep it rolling this week and eat Detroit’s Thanksgiving Turkey.
- Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys (3.0)
Miklos: DAL Under 46.5
Brandon: DAL Under 46.5
A "clash of titans" in this NFC East matchup. Dallas’ win against the Vikings shows how potent their offense can be and they will be more than a match for the Washington Football Team. Although the Washington Defensive Line may cause some problems as arguably one of the best in the NFL led by the star rookie Chase Young,
who looks like the real deal as the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
- Las Vegas Raiders (3.0) vs Atlanta Falcons
Miklos: LV Over 56.0
Brandon: LV Over 56.0
*A rare battle of the hosts favourite teams going head-to-head in this cross conference matchup.
Both teams suffered losses last week. But, after an impressive showing against the defending champions look for the Raiders to bounce back and steal a win on the road in Georgia against the Falcons, who made Matt Ryan's job anything but easy last week by allowing the QB to be sacked 8 times vs their rival New Orleans Saints.
Credit: Josh D. Weiss-USA TODAY Sports
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills (6.0)
Miklos: BUF Over 53.5
Brandon: BUF Under 53.5
The Charges keep being the Chargers barely putting away the Jets. The Bills are coming off the bye and will take care of business at home. As an added bonus, every team in their division lost last week, giving them a comfortable lead in the AFC East as long as they continue to take care of business against teams they SHOULD beat, like the Chargers here.
The weather factor in Western, NY is always a crapshoot, could play a factor in the points or lack thereof that both of these talented offenses could put up.
- New York Giants (6.0) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Miklos: NYG Under 42
Brandon: NYG Under 42
With the loss of Joe Burrow to a horrific knee injury the Bengals really need to close up shop for the year and look to next season.
The Giants meanwhile somehow have playoff aspirations at 3-7 due to the division leading Eagles being 3-6-1 and have been steadily reliable in recent weeks, which is a lot coming from the terrible NFC East.
- Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts (3.5)
Miklos: IND Under 50.5
A huge NFC South match up could decide the division and home field in the playoffs. Both teams had impressive wins last week over the Ravens and Packers. Tennessee’s secondary has been suspect in past weeks and I think it will cost them here.
Brandon: TEN Over 50.5
Definitely a big matchup not only as a divisional rivalry, but both of these teams are tied at the top of the AFC South with 7-3 records. After a huge win for Tennessee against Baltimore in Overtime last week & the beast mode performances by WR A.J Brown & RB Derrick Henry, expect for the Titans to ride this high to victory against their divisional "kryptonite" in the Colts.
- Cleveland Browns (6.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Miklos: CLE Over 49.0
Brandon: CLE Under 49.0
Two weeks in a row...As unbelievable as it sounds the Browns have been on a roll in recent weeks, including a Safety & Interception TD vs the Eagles last week for this stout looking defense.
Not to be forgotten, a dangerous running attack for the Browns led by 2 elite RB's Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt, will be more than enough to help the Jaguars stay in the running for Trevor Lawrence currently sitting at 1-9.
- Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings (4.0)
Miklos: CAR Under 48.5
Brandon: CAR Under 48.5
Matt Rhule should be in the running for Coach of the Year with the job he has done in Carolina. No Bridgewater, no McCaffrey, no problem the Panthers keep rolling and they will again in Minnesota who just dropped an egg against Dallas.
- Arizona Cardinals (2.0) vs New England Patriots
Miklos: ARI Under 49.0
Brandon ARI Over 49.0
Arizona has impressed all season as we both expected & raved about during their great offseason moves and despite the game being in Foxborough, will hand Bill Belichick and the Patriots another loss in what has turned out to be the worst season of the Patriots-Belichick era.
Although the Patriots have come away with a few impressive wins this season, this Kliff Kingsbury offense led by Kyler Murray & all of their skilled weapons will be too much to handle for the depleted Patriots Defense.
- Miami Dolphins (7.0) vs New York Jets
Miklos: Mia Over 44.5
Brandon: Mia Over 44.5
After a stunning loss and benching against the Broncos this is a “get right” game for Tua and the Dolphins.
The Jets stay "perfect" on the quest for 0-16 while the Dolphins stay into the playoff & AFC East title hunt.
- Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers (5.0) *Moved from Thursday Night due to COVID concerns
Miklos: PIT Over 45.0
A huge matchup slightly marred by the COVID issues in Baltimore. This is an opportunity for Pittsburgh to put Baltimore back in their place and continue the perfect season.
Credit: The Associated Press
Brandon: BAL over 45.0
In an almost must-win game for the Ravens who have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, falling into 3rd place in the AFC North.
Still clinging onto one of the final Wild Card playoff spots, they need a good showing in primetime versus their most hated rivals, who happen to still be undefeated. Lamar & the Ravens pull off a much needed upset win.
- New Orleans Saints (5.5) vs Denver Broncos
Miklos: NO over 43.5
Brandon: NO over 43.5
Tysom Hill got the job done in his first start but he faces a tougher defence and tougher atmosphere playing in Mile High this week. The Saints are still the Saints though and will overcome these new challenges to move to 2-0 under Taysom Hill.
Michael Thomas finally had his coming out party of an injury plagued 2020 campaign vs Atlanta last week, after leading all receiver categories in 2019. Look for Taysom Hill to throw in the direction of #13 quite often.
- San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams (7.0)
Miklos: LAR Under 45.0
As mentioned last week the Rams are probably the most underrated team in the NFL and they showed it by defeating the Buccaneers and Tom Brady in prime time. Moving from that to the injury riddled 49ers will easy pickings for this dark horse Super Bowl candidate.
- Kansas City Chiefs (3.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miklos: KC Over 56.0
Brandon: KC Over 56.0
There is a problem in Tampa Bay. Tom Brady keeps getting leeway because of who he is and the talent on that roster but the offense has struggled, especially last week vs LAR.
The job doesn’t get easier with the defending Super Bowl champs coming to town and unfortunately that means another L for "Tompa" Bay in this always exciting great
QB matchup between Brady & Mahomes.
Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports - Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (9.0)
Miklos: GB Under 45.0
Brandon: GB Over 45.0
One of the greatest rivalries in NFL history will be undercut by the comedy show that is the Bears offense.
This game could possibly be low scoring due to the Bears championship calibre defense & high school level offense, but this is a bounce game for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers after the OT loss to the Colts.
- Seattle Seahawks (6.0) vs Phi
Miklos: Sea Under 50.0
Brandon: Sea Over 50.0
With the addition of Carlos Dunlap to stabilize the defence the Seahawks are poised for a title run. On the other hand the Eagles have a host of injuries and what looks to be a regressing QB in Carson Wentz.
Looks like an easy win for the resurgent Seahawks & MVP Candidate Russell Wilson in this battle for Aviary Supremacy.
4 Takeaways from Week 11
By Miklos McMaster
Credit: Andy Cross, The Denver Post
1. Tua Gets Benched
Well after singing the praises of the Miami Dolphins only a week ago they let me down with a disappointing job against the Denver Broncos. Despite the loss I think the coaching job by Brian Flores has been masterful all season. Case and point in this most recent game when he benched their top 10 draft pick QB of the future.
QB is a position that is viewed with a lot of reverence in the NFL so benching a player like Tua is going to raise more than a few eyebrows and bring a host of questions from the media. But I think it was a great move. Tua was struggling all game and when Fitzpatrick came in the Dolphins offense came to life and was just short of coming back and sending the game to overtime. Tua is the QB of the future no doubt about that but kudos to Brian Flores to do whatever it takes to win.
2. NFC East is the most competitive division in the NFL.
This title may have made you do a double take and I know it sounds crazy but hear me out. The only thing separating these teams is the tie that the Philadelphia Eagles have. I know this division has been abysmal, but the fact of the matter is one of these teams is going to host a playoff game in the new year.
So, with that in mind these final regular season games will be something to keep an eye on. They will have a lot of intrigue and competition and personally I think this just shows how great the NFL is. At a time when we would be tuning out and ignoring games involving the NFC East they suddenly matter and could have a huge impact in the playoffs whether we like it or not.
3. I’m sick of PI and QB over protection
Okay I am going to take a moment here to rant a little bit. As a former defensive back the pass interference penalties that I saw this past week were brutal! I don’t know if they were only in the games I happen to be watching or if it was in other games as well. The league has been moving to a more offensive oriented game I know but some of these calls make me question how anyone is supposed to defend a pass catcher in todays NFL. One immediate example that comes to mind is a play from the Monday Night game. Jalen Ramsey had Mike Evans covered perfectly on a double move and stacked the route resulting in Evans running into him. The result…Defensive PI. I don’t know how you could play that any better to avoid the flag.
The second part of this rant is in regards to quarterbacks. Now he may not be the worst or only offender but he is the one I see do it the most. Patrick Mahomes has taken great advantage of the QB protection rules by acting like he is giving himself up and going out of bounds and then when the defenders ease up scampers for an additional 6-8 yards. I am not blaming Mahomes, he’s taking advantage of the existing rules,
but I do think this will result in a frustrated defender T-ing off on a QB to try and prevent this in the future.
4. The Colts and Browns
Both of these teams have not been talked about nearly enough. The Browns because….well….they’re the Browns and the Colts because they really stumbled out of the gates with an unbelievable loss to the Jaguars. Who could imagine that happening now?
But despite the rough start for both teams they are both entering week 12 with 7-3 records. Those are both impressive records and if the Colts win this week they will probably have the AFC South all sewed up. The Browns I think are benefiting from flying under the radar as well. They have overtaken the Ravens to take second place in the AFC North behind an impressive running.