Sabres Extend Noah Ostlund For His Potential, Not His Small Sample Size
The Buffalo Sabres signed forward Noah Ostlund to an eight-year contract extension that carries an annual average value (AAV) of $6.6 million.
Now, I've seen some discourse online where people are calling it a "massive overpay" or that "they never heard of Ostlund until now." Well, all the Sabres needed to see was how he impacted the team last season and decided to keep him around long-term.
Ostlund Will Exceed the Contract Expectations
Last season, Ostlund appeared in 60 regular‑season games and recorded 27 points, adding two more in three playoff games. Throughout the year he showed a level of maturity well beyond his age, and it became especially clear late in the season when head coach Lindy Ruff trusted him with heavy, high‑leverage minutes.
He earned time on the second power‑play unit, giving him chances to showcase his offensive skill. But his biggest impact came defensively. According to Evolving Hockey, Ostlund ranked in the 90th percentile in defensive impact, posting 4.5 goals above replacement and 3 expected goals above replacement, elite numbers for a young center still finding his footing.
Ostlund finished last season with 1.93 points per 60 minutes, an impressive mark for a player with just 68 career NHL games. His P/60 outpaced former fourth‑overall pick Shane Wright, and with Alex Tuch’s departure opening up more opportunity, Ostlund is positioned to push those numbers even higher.
His rebound creation rate sat at 0.93 per 60 minutes, just shy of the ideal one‑per‑60 benchmark, but still right in line with his peers. Matthew Knies (0.97), Logan Cooley (1.03), and Connor Bedard (1.04) were only marginally ahead. Considering Ostlund’s limited NHL experience compared to players who already have two or three seasons under their belt, his trajectory is extremely encouraging.
When comparing expected goal share relative to deployment, Ostlund stacks up well. He and Cooley both posted a 67% offensive‑zone start percentage, yet Ostlund held the better expected goals share (53% to Cooley’s 51.5%). The same pattern holds against Bedard: despite Bedard’s 75% offensive‑zone start rate, his expected goals share sat at 51.5%. Ostlund may not have matched their raw offensive totals, but he drove a stronger share of chances.
Ostlund’s ice time also reflects his developmental stage, he played more than three minutes less per game than most players in his age group. With Tuch gone, that gap is almost certain to close this season.
And speaking of Tuch, Ostlund has the potential to surpass what Tuch provided at his peak in Buffalo. Tuch averaged 18.99 minutes per game last season, while Ostlund played 13.97. Even with the smaller workload, Ostlund posted a better shooting percentage per 60 minutes (18.33 to Tuch’s 16.92). Their rebound creation rates were similarly close: Tuch at 1.04, Ostlund at 0.93.
Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen made the right call locking Ostlund up early. Had he waited until after this season, with the cap rising and Östlund primed for a breakout, the price tag could easily have climbed into the eight‑ or nine‑million range.
Big things are coming for Ostlund this season and beyond. You should be expecting them.
Statistics gathered by Sean Morran
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