Buffalo Sabres Down the Final Stretch: Can They Finally End Their Playoff Drought?

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The NHL's three-week hiatus for the 2026 Winter Olympics couldn't have come at a better time for the Buffalo Sabres. After losing three of their last four games and being battered with injuries, the team needed this time to reset – even if it came without captain Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson, both of whom have been representing their countries in Milano Cortina.

Buffalo headed into the break holding onto the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with 70 points, sitting just one point ahead of the Boston Bruins and two back of Montreal for third in the Atlantic. The position itself is a testament to how far this group has come. Before a stumble in their final week before the break, the Sabres had posted a remarkable 20-3-1 record across a 24-game stretch to surge up the standings and thrust themselves firmly into the playoff conversation.

According to Sabres Noise, here is where things stand across several outlets when it comes to Buffalo's odds of finally ending their 14-year playoff drought:

Outlet	Sabres Playoff Odds
HockeyStats.com	88%
Hockey Reference	83.5%
Playoff Status	80%
Power Rankings Guru	79.4%
DraftKings Sportsbook	79.2% (-380 odds)
The Athletic	79%
HockeyViz	78.2%
MoneyPuck	67.8%

The numbers offer a genuine reason for optimism, but a quick glance at the standings tells you just how tight this race really is. Despite their incredible surge, the Sabres will need to maintain a high level of play across the final 25 games to finally punch that long-awaited postseason ticket. Their margin for error has already shrunk, with the red-hot Columbus Blue Jackets – the first team outside the East's top eight – moving within five points of Buffalo heading into the break on the back of a seven-game winning streak, and doing so with a game in hand. At the same time, the teams above them in the Atlantic aren't exactly pulling away either, meaning there is ground to be gained in both directions.

Injury Update: A Bruised but Resilient Roster

On the injury front, goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was originally slotted to join Thompson and Dahlin in Italy but was sidelined from Olympic competition due to the lower-body injury he sustained on January 27th. Head coach Lindy Ruff has said he is "days away" from returning to the team, while Josh Norris and Josh Dunne have both begun practicing in non-contact jerseys. Zach Benson is still being evaluated, and Jordan Greenway and Justin Danforth remain without a return timetable.

Buying at the Deadline: What Moves Could Push Buffalo Over the Top?

As for the trade deadline, Buffalo finds itself in an enviable position, as an unquestioned buyer for the first time in over a decade. The team has given new GM Jarmo Kekalainen a real problem to solve: the answer may have been in the room all along, and tinkering too aggressively with a group that clearly has chemistry carries its own risks. That said, adding a top-nine forward could meaningfully bolster their offensive depth, and the backend is another area worth addressing. 

While the top four on defence are seemingly locked down, the bottom pairing has repeatedly found itself in difficult spots, a situation made worse by the absences of Michael Kesselring and Conor Timmins. The Sabres also have young players and draft capital on hand if Kekalainen wants to take a bigger swing, but they could just as easily choose to trust the group that got them here.

Heroes of the Surge – and the Ones Who Need to Step Up

If there is one player who has been the unsung hero of Buffalo's run, it's defenceman Mattias Samuelsson. While Dahlin has been his typically dynamic self, teammates and coaching staff have repeatedly pointed to the 25-year-old alternate captain as the team's most reliable defenceman this season, and the numbers back it up. 

Through 55 games, Samuelsson has been logging over 23 minutes of ice time per night, leading the team in blocked shots and shorthanded ice time, and quietly putting together the best offensive season of his career. He has been Buffalo's defender of choice when going up against the likes of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews, and he has delivered in those moments. He also had one of the season's signature moments with an overtime winner that became part of a franchise-altering comeback stretch. When Dahlin returns from Milano Cortina and slots back alongside him, that pairing may well be the most important duo on the ice for Buffalo's playoff push.

But while Samuelsson has been exceeding every expectation, two forwards need to be at the centre of the conversation heading into the final stretch. Josh Norris, acquired from Ottawa last March in the trade that sent Dylan Cozens the other way, has shown exactly why the Sabres gave up a franchise centre to get him – when healthy. The 26-year-old was producing at a strong pace through the games he played before his latest setback, and when he is on the ice, you can see the full picture of what Buffalo envisioned: a 200-foot centre who wins faceoffs, plays in all situations, and can put up points against top competition. The problem, as it has been throughout his career, is staying in the lineup. With the team confirming he is practicing again and reportedly closing in on a return, the Sabres will need the full version of Norris down the stretch if they want to turn this wild-card position into a playoff berth.

Jack Quinn is the other name worth watching closely. The 2020 eighth-overall pick has been putting together his most productive season to date, on pace to surpass last year's point total and leading the team in primary assists per hour at five-on-five. The skill is not in question; his shot and his playmaking ability are legitimate NHL weapons, but consistency has always been the knock on Quinn, and his defensive numbers leave something to be desired. Those kinds of gaps tend to get exposed when games tighten up, and the margins shrink, which is exactly the territory the Sabres are heading into. Quinn has the ability to be a genuine difference-maker over these final 25 games. The question will be whether he can be relied upon on both sides of the puck, not just when he has time and space.

The Goaltending Question: Can the Unlikely Trio Get the Job Done?

Few storylines this season have been more surprising than the Sabres' goaltending situation – and in a good way. When Luukkonen went down with an injury in training camp, the team claimed Colten Ellis off waivers from St. Louis to bridge the gap alongside Alex Lyon. What was meant to be a temporary fix quietly evolved into one of the more unconventional goaltending arrangements in the league, with all three netminders seeing regular action throughout the season. 

Nobody thought a three-goalie rotation would work, and in most cases, it doesn't. But Buffalo's trio has defied the skeptics, with the team's collective .897 save percentage ranking 11th in the NHL despite a parade of injuries cycling through the crease. Perhaps even more telling, all three goaltenders own a positive goals saved above expected. 

That said, heading into the final stretch, a decision will have to be made. Luukkonen sits at 11-7-2 with a .903 save percentage and 2.73 GAA, while Lyon has been arguably the team's most consistent netminder at 14-8-3 with a .913 save percentage and 2.72 GAA. Ellis is 7-4-1 but carries a 3.11 GAA and .896 save percentage. With Luukkonen looking to be healthy in the coming days and returning from injury, the question of who starts and who backs up has become one of the more pressing items on Kekalainen's plate. Carrying three goalies into a playoff push is a luxury most teams can't afford, as someone has to be the odd man out. Whatever decision is made, the bottom line is simple: all three have shown they are capable of winning big games in this league, and the Sabres are going to need that level from whoever is between the pipes as the schedule gets harder and the stakes get higher.

The Closer: Everything Runs Through Tage Thompson

Every conversation about the Buffalo Sabres' playoff push eventually comes back to one player: Tage Thompson. Through 57 games this season, the 28-year-old has posted 30 goals and 59 points, firmly re-establishing himself as one of the premier power forwards in the Eastern Conference after a somewhat inconsistent stretch in 2024-25. He has been the engine of this offence, the guy opponents have to account for on every shift, and the player the locker room leans on when things get difficult. 

There is also a minor concern worth monitoring as he returns from Italy. Thompson blocked a shot off his foot late in Team USA's Olympic semifinal win over Slovakia and was unable to finish the game. He is expected to be available for the gold medal game, but the Sabres will be keeping a close eye on his recovery as the regular season resumes. A healthy Thompson returning to full strength and carrying his regular-season form into the final 25 games is the single biggest factor in whether Buffalo finally punches that playoff ticket.

The talent is there. The record speaks for itself. But Thompson has to be the closer, the player who wills this team through the hard nights when the power play stalls, when the defence breaks down, and when the pressure of a 14-year drought starts to feel very real. Buffalo and their fans have waited a long time for a moment like this, and how this group responds to it will define the season.

The Sabres return to action Wednesday night against the New Jersey Devils as owners of the top wild-card position in the East. Before taking on two divisional rivals, the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.